Second half strategies
By R. Gregory Scalf
Fantasy and rotisserie owners should be evaluating their clubs all season in an attempt to better their team for a stretch run or for next season. As the All-Star break is the trade deadline in many leagues, owners will be looking for that extra edge going to the trading tables. There are several strategies and philosophies that one could follow in preparing and planning for the second half.
First of all, try to evaluate the first half statistics.
Second Half Statistical Leaders
For those of you that believe in history repeating itself, you can look at first half, second half numbers. When looking at the season as a whole, some players play better at certain times of the year compared to others. There are varying reasons for this. A change in scenery by trade is one example. Another example is the fact that many players from the Deep South or Latin America do not play well in cool weather. Statistically speaking, most players see their performance drop as the season goes along. The wear and tear for 162 games through the dog days of August and bumps and bruises causes the average player to decline. One would expect to see a player decline as they tire compared to starting fresh where many players have great April starts. And remember, players that were injured, minor league call-ups or send downs don't have that kind of information.
Also beware of the free agents that could move to new teams in new leagues -- something to be of concern if you are in a keeper league. Some think that players in a contract year put up better stats as well.
Again, the above examples are for your consideration. How you use them depends on your thinking and which theories you believe in. There are also many variables that can impact a performance that the numbers do not reveal. A player that had an excellent second half last year might be struggling this year because of injury, personal problems, etc. Will it continue into the second half or will he come on in the second half with the stress of the situation now out of his mind? Some players falter from the stress of being on the trading block, while media might affect others. The bottom line is that you cannot go by stats alone. As an owner you must try to use the above info and apply it to present situations in "guestimating" the expected outcomes in the second half.
Other Tips
The above info leaves you to decide based on your thoughts about the info. Below are a few suggestions when planning for your second half in your league.
Keep in mind the situation of the team of the player you are trading for.
Teams that are in a wild card race will keep their best
players in the line-up. Those not in a race will be inclined to sit veterans
down the stretch and watch the prospects play. This is also true of dominant teams
that have a lead so big they can and will rest star players in September or
even sooner.
If playing for next year, gamble a little bit.
Trade off those high priced players and take a chance on low
dollar players, especially setup men for closers that are in a contract year.
Other players in the same bullpens should be considered as well. Minor leaguers
on the verge of regular jobs next year are also considerations.
Be aware of out-of-contention teams dumping contracts.
They will be traded (rented) for the stretch drive, possibly
out of the league. Be careful trading for them and then losing them if your
league does not have a contingency rule.
Finally, you have probably heard this before, but trade fairly.
An owner that takes advantage of an inexperienced one develops a reputation that gets around the league. While it may pay dividends in the short run, it will likely cost you in the long.
Good Luck in the second half.
R. Gregory Scalf is a former division I baseball player and associate scout for the Kansas City Royals. He currently is the webmaster at Fantasy Baseball Central and the assistant webmaster at John Mosey's Fantasy baseball Home Page.
