The Beeg Mon’s Winning Draft
Strategy
By: the Beeg Mon
August
22, 2001
Here is the truth
of rating draft choices... it can't be done.
Not with any real certainty anyway, if we're being honest and practical.
That doesn't mean
you can't have a winning plan, however.
Most winning drafting strategies react to the draft as it progresses,
whereas drafting from a pre-determined top 400 is a 'sure fire' loser, because
it doesn't take your clubs need at positions in account.
To try and
determine the 'best' overall pick of the draft, is futile for many reasons, not
the least of which is the particular rules of your FFL, and how they relate to
the way that your players will be scored.
Each season there
will be a few obvious upper echelon players that will succeed, as well as
several others that will 'step up' to previously unseen performance levels,
while others that will remain consistently mediocre, an still others that will
fail miserably.
The reasons for
this disparity of performance are relatively obvious. They are in part due to
talent, in part due to surrounding cast, part is the teams offensive
philosophy, part is schedule, and in part due to just plain luck.
The following
'rules of thumb' are not written in stone, as there will always be exceptions.
Occasionally players may actually go from the average to the 'upper crust' of
players, while some players will have career years, with no particular rhyme or
reason, never to find that groove again. Remember, they will be as rare as a
'Kurt Warner come out of nowhere' appearance.
Which leads us to
my solution. The 'tiered' system.
#1] The first tier
of players are the can't misses.... the players who lead the league,
continuously hover near that 'rarified air', or who certainly will be, by the
seasons end. These are the players everyone talks about, yet few are able to
draft, yet rarely bringing FFL championships by themselves. These are also the
players that will always be FFL team leaders, usually to be found among your
leagues highest scoring players at their position.
#2] The second
tier are the 'step-up' players, who are ready to make the leap to a higher
level of play, or to return to the top tier, after injury, replaced coaching or
other circumstance beyond their control. While some may be former first tier
players, who thru injury, age, or club attrition, will never return to that
level of play again. Expect these players will always be near your leagues top
scoring players at their position.
#3] The next
level, or third tier will be the majority, and is the middle of the road tier.
These players will likely have average/workmanlike seasons... not too good,
nothing too bad...not really horrible, yet nothing to 'write home about', and
certainly nothing to build a team around. These will always be the majority of
players. Steady and true in many ways they are the most predictable, yet their
scoring will be as much determined each week more by the variables of the
match-ups (team or personal injuries, opposing defense, offensive game plan,
weather, etc.) as their actual performances on the field.
#4] The final tier
is the bottom rung, these players either have careers needing time to develop,
or for others, it is time to find a brand new career. Some of these players
will progress to the next rung up, or just plain won't ever get there, while
still others will never return to their previous level. Some are unknown quantities, either because
of youth, lack of experience, or in this age of free agency, a new system or
team they find themselves surrounded by.
How do you use
this 'tiered' knowledge to your advantage?
At the draft
itself.
First you must
determine which positions your league rules have weighted as the most valuable
positions, in your particular league.
In most leagues it is the RB, while in others it is the QB. I have yet to hear of one where the WR is
tops, but some place them equivalent to the QB, and I am just as sure that
there are some leagues placing the WR position equal to the RB.
Once that is
determined, remember that you want the very best at the position your league
weighs most heavily, yet your drafting position may rule out some picks
immediately. Depending on how your
position falls in your FFL draft, you may be willing to wait on a position (if
you know that the difference between the best and worst players in any
particular level is not that great) while jumping to a higher tier player at
another position, who may not be available to you, later on in the draft.
For instance, even
though your league is weighted to the QB position, settling for an average QB
in the forth round, to get a shot at 2 top tier RB's and a first level WR, may
actually put your team at a distinct advantage, in comparison to one who takes
the best available player at a needed position.
No plan is perfect
however, and there are exceptions, as drafting a #1 kicker or Defense in the
first few rounds, is a surefire method to mediocrity, however.
With all that
said... let's see what the Beeg Mon has wrought.
Oh, and by the
way...GOOD LUCK!
