2004:
Lessons Learned
January 31, 2005
By Bob Radl, Staff writer
While the 2004 NFL season is still fresh in our minds, let's
take a look at some lessons learned from last year's drafts. Some of the most
useful lessons learned are also the most painful ones. This past season was
definitely a topsy-turvy season with injuries almost too numerous to mention
and surprises galore.
Here are some potentially useful hints to file away and put
to good use in next year's draft:
(1) Drafting unproven players too soon. Think Tim
Rattay and Brandon Lloyd here. Rattay and Lloyd flew off the draft board much
earlier than they should have been drafted. Lloyd wound up 47th in the rankings
in 2004 after being ranked 97th in 2003. It was not unusual to see Lloyd being
picked as high as the 5th to 7th round of some drafts. You could also include
Michael Vick in this group. Vick was often the third or fourth QB drafted and
wound up 24th ranked QB in the final Shrink rankings.
(2) Consider the entire supporting cast. Kevin Barlow
is a prime example here of a player that was drafted late in the first round of
most drafts or early in the second round at worst. We should have seen that his
entire supporting cast including the QB, WR and the O-line was not on par with
the team from the year before. Barlow lost Jeff Garcia at QB, Terrell Owens at
WR and two members of the offensive line.
(3) Inexperienced QB. Carson Palmer is a prime example here. Although Palmer looks like
a good young QB for the future, his inability get Chad Johnson the ball at
times, degraded the value of Chad Johnson. Johnson slipped from third to 12th
in the overall WR final rankings. Palmer improved as the season went along so
the future looks good. Hines Ward also suffered a downgrade from 7th in last
years ranking to 28th in 2004. The Steelers ran the ball a NFL high 61% of the
time this past season.
(4) Tight End Revival. Tight ends profited just as
much as the wide receivers from the new league rule limiting contact by
defensive players in pass coverage. Tight ends could not be held and grabbed by
linebackers as they were in the past. Just look at the numbers from 2003 to
2004. The 2003 season had two tight ends with 60 or more catches- Tony Gonzalez
and Shannon Sharpe. The 2004 season had six tight ends with 60 or more catches
with Gonzalez leading the group with an astounding 102 catches. The other tight
ends in this august group were Jason Witten with 87 balls, Antonio Gates with
81 balls, Randy McMichael with 73 catches, Jermaine Wiggins with 71 balls and
Jeremy Shockey with 61 catches. T-Gun also had 1,214 yards while Gates scored
an amazing 13 touchdowns. The bottom line is that the tight end has a much
bigger role in the offense. The top tight ends are now worth of being drafted
in the third to fifth round at the latest in most drafts.
(5) The dreaded RBBC or platoon. One only needs to
look at teams like the Minnesota Vikings where Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith
and Mewelde Moore all took turns as the featured back with varying degrees of
success. This drove fantasy managers crazy as they tried to second-guess whom
to play each week.
(6) Draft good players on strong offensive teams.
Apparently, this will come as a shocking revelation to some managers. Consider
that Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely from the Colts were all
ranked among the top 10 wide receivers at the end of the year. Countless drafts
were held where managers took much weaker wide receivers than a player the
caliber of Wayne. Would you rather have Reggie Wayne or Stokely over say the #1
WR from the Ravens? Hope you get the picture here.
(7) Beware of new offensive schemes. Teams have a
tendency to struggle when they switch from one type of offensive scheme to
another. Michael Vick struggled with the West Coast offense this year. His
strengths are not suited to the West Coast offense. The same type of switch to
various passing schemes or different running schemes can also spell doom for
players.
(8) Watch the age of the RBs. Numerous teams wasted
late first round or early second round draft picks on Marshall Faulk or Stephen
Davis to see their season go down the tubes. One good rule of thumb is to be
careful about picking a RB past the age of 30. There are always exceptions to
the rule. Just take a look at the season Jerome Bettis had in Pittsburgh.
(9) Collar the backup RB. This ties in closely with
the aforementioned item. If you drafted Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes or Travis
Henry, you needed to collar the back up or in the case of Holmes even the RB#3.
(10) Work the Waiver Wire. This should go without
saying. Some of the gems available in many leagues this year were Ruben
Droughns, Kerry Collins, Drew Brees, Michael Pittman, Nick Goings, Stokely,
Muhsin Muhammad, Nate Burleson, Lee Evans and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to name just
a few of the more prominent names.
Now go ahead and file this away so you can dominate your
draft in 2005!
Bob Radl has made it to the FSPA Super Bowl two
years, winning the championship once after dominating all through the playoffs.
He represents The Shrink in most of the football and basketball expert leagues.
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