My Third Straight Championship in the 2007 Tout Wars Mixed League

By Larry Schechter

October 10, 2007

There are three components to a winning fantasy baseball season. There’s the auction (or draft), in-season moves, and an element of luck.

The most important thing for an auction or draft is to be prepared. Go in with an idea of what you’re willing to pay for each player, and have an overall plan. You should know how many stud hitters you’re going to buy, where your speed will come from, will you bid on Johan Santana or wait for a cheaper pitcher? How many closers will you get? Etc.

In a mixed league, I always plan to get a couple of top stud hitters. For the 2007 auction, I wanted to get Reyes, Soriano, or Crawford, because I wanted to get a lot of stolen bases with my top hitter. I was afraid that later on, players such as Hanley Ramirez, Rollins, Figgins, etc., would be overpriced.

I landed Crawford for $39—a fair price, not overpaying—and later, when the bidding on Utley stalled at $29, I bid $30. I was shocked that there were no further bids. Utley was worth $35 in my opinion. I also got good values on Dye for $21 and Atkins for $23.

I was planning to get a top starter, either Santana or Carpenter, but the prices on them went higher than I’d expected, so I dropped out of the bidding. That trend continued, as the discounts on starters weren’t as great as they had been in the past in this league. I finally accepted smaller discounts than I’d wanted, and took Lackey, Sabathia, and Willis as my top pitchers.

As always happens with a 12-team mixed auction, there were many good players left for just $1. Every player I bought for $1 was projected to be worth at least $15, with Chad Tracy ($20) at the top of that list.

As usual, not everything went well. Players such as Mauer and Utley spent time on the DL. Tracy and Kenny Rogers, although I only paid $1 each for them, were complete busts. And I kept waiting for Jermaine Dye to break out of his slump, but it never happened. Dontrelle Willis, who was supposed to be one of my three best pitchers, was so awful I ended up releasing him before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, I had four players who were wonderfully overachieving. Magglio Ordonez, Aaron Rowand, C.C. Sabathia, and Kevin Youkilis. I was quite sure that Magglio, Rowand, and CC would not keep up their torrid paces, and I traded them all midway through the season. As it turned out, they did keep up their torrid pace. The only one I kept, Youkilis, tailed off quite a bit.

So my in-season moves weren’t really all that brilliant. However, there were a few bright spots, such as starting with Matt Capps on reserve and buying Al Reyes the first week into the season, thus gaining two more closers. I also bought Reggie Willits in mid-April. .

I would say my element of “luck” was fairly neutral this year. I had some injuries, but nothing more than normal. And I got lucky with a few gambles, such as Reyes, Capps and Willits; but I also got unlucky with guys like Rogers, Tracy, Willis and Dye.

When I don’t win a league, it’s usually easy for me to spot my mistakes, and to blame injuries or bad luck. But when I win, it’s always difficult for me to analyze exactly why I won. This year, it seems as though my in-season moves and luck were fairly neutral, so I’m guessing I must have started with a superior team after the auction.

Although I successfully completed my attempt for a “threepeat,” my point totals and margin of victory have declined each year. So I’m going to have to stay very sharp if I’m going to make it four in a row in 2008!