Tout Wars 2008

By Larry Schechter

Tout Wars held their auctions the weekend of March 21-22 at the Residence Inn Hotel near Times Square.  Instead of the usual Saturday and Sunday schedule, it was changed to Friday night and Saturday morning, to allow people to get back home for Easter Sunday.

 

The AL auction on Friday night was unusual because a film crew was there documenting the entire event based on the book Fantasyland.  If you aren’t familiar with Fantasyland, Sam Walker wrote it about his rookie season in Tout Wars.  I highly recommend it for anyone interested in fantasy sports, or baseball in general.  Go get a copy at your local bookstore.

 

Because of the revised schedule, the NL and Mixed auctions were held simultaneously on Saturday morning.  The NL got the nice conference room, and those of us in mixed were subjected to a small, cramped room, where the air conditioning wasn’t working.  It must have gotten up to 80 degrees or more at one point, before they finally fixed the it about three hours into the auction.  I don’t know about the other participants, but the only thing that kept me from taking off my shirt (and maybe my pants, too) was the fact that the film crew was there.  I didn’t want to be responsible for the documentary getting stuck with an “R” rating.

 

After being in my fourth LABR auction a few weeks prior, and having previously been at three Tout Wars auctions, there is one thing I’ve finally learned…you can’t predict in advance what’s going to happen with pricing and “inflation” or “deflation.”  Just when I thought that in LABR the hitters went for full price—or above—and all pitchers went for discounts, last year that didn’t happen.  Some hitters went for a discount, and many starting pitchers went full price.   And the huge discounts that were available in 2005 & 2006 at Tout Wars for starting pitchers were suddenly much smaller in 2007.  (The only thing that has remained fairly constant is the price of relief pitchers.)

 

So I went to this year’s Tout auction prepared to be flexible and adjust once I could determine if the prices were going to be like 2005 + 2006, or more like 2007.

 

As usual, I wanted to get at least one top stud hitter ($35 or more value) and I wanted that guy to get a lot of stolen bases.  Since you often have to pay a premium for stolen bases, in the mixed league format, I like to get them taken care of with my high-priced stud.  Looking at the highest priced players, who also get a lot of SBs, left four candidates…Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Carl Crawford.  (Hanley has achieved one-name status, like Cher, Madonna, etc.)

 

Shortstops tend to be overpriced, due to “position scarcity” inflation.  In a 12-team mixed auction, there are still going to be good players available for $1, so I concluded Carl Crawford would be my best bet for a reasonable price.  This was déjà vu.  If you read my column last year, you know he was the guy I targeted in 2007 as well.

 

As defending champion, I had the honor of the first nomination.  Last year, I brought up Crawford first and bought him.  This year, I was feeling a little paranoid.  As the three-time champ, I knew that everyone would be gunning for me.  I was thinking that if I brought up Crawford again, maybe someone would try to out-bid me.  Also, I was tempted to sit back and let a few guys go by, so that I could gauge the pricing structure for this year.  If it turned out that Reyes, Hanley or Rollins were nominated before Crawford, and went for a reasonable price, I could grab one of them and forget about Crawford.

 

I was thinking I would start by nominating A-Rod, to get one of the studs out of the way.  Since some guys go into the draft planning to buy just one high priced hitter, this would potentially eliminate one of my competitors for the likes of Reyes, Crawford, etc.

 

On the train ride down to Manhattan, I started thinking about an alternate plan…Chone Figgins.  I had him projected for 55 SB, second only to Reyes.  And I had him projected for a $32 value, where many pre-season publications and web sites have listed him in the $28-30 range.  I thought maybe I should bring him up first, and if I could nab him for a couple dollars discount ($30), I could get my SB taken care of, and wouldn’t need to get Reyes, Crawford or anyone else.  Instead, I could sit back and wait for any good value to appear, without having to worry about getting more steals.  On the other hand, if Figgins went for more than $30, I’d pass and wait for the other guys, just like I was going to do, anyway, had I nominated A-Rod first.

 

The way that mixed auctions work, you can often get a $32 player for around $26, especially if he isn’t nominated early and isn’t big on SB.  However, by bringing up Figgins first, and especially since he’s a top SB guy, I wasn’t optimistic that I’d get him for $30.

 

However, sometimes at the start of an auction, many people want to sit back and see what happens for a couple of picks, so you can sometimes sneak a player by for a discount…especially if it’s someone they’re not expecting.  Also, with several great 3B this year (A-Rod, Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Braun) I thought perhaps a few guys might pass on Figgins because they were targeting one of those top four.  And others might pass on Figgins because they were targeting Reyes, Hanley, etc. for SBs.

 

My final decision was that I wasn’t extremely optimistic about getting Figgins for $30, but I had nothing to lose by trying.  I’d nominate Figgins for $20, and have a $30 limit.

 

The next morning, I began the auction with my $20 bid.   Someone else said “$21.”  I said “$22.”  Silence.  More silence.  Then the auctioneer: “Going once, going twice…sold!  Chone Figgins, $22, to Schechter.”

 

I was stunned.  Happy, but stunned.  “Thank God I decided to try that,” I thought.

 

Todd Zola, sitting next to me, had entered my purchase into his computer.  He has a program that automatically updates everyone’s roster and the projected league standings when a purchase is made.  “I’m showing you in first place,” he said. 

 

Having taken care of my stolen bases, I sat back and watched as Reyes, Hanley, and Rollins all went for too much money; and although Crawford was sold at a very reasonable $36, I passed on him as well, because I didn’t need another 50-steal guy, and wanted to wait for better bargains.

 

I bought $36 value Big Papi (not to be confused with Big Daddy Vladdy) for a nice $29, and later got Magglio Ordonez and Bobby Abreu for $22 each.  Torii Hunter for $19 was my other top hitter.  Raul Ibanez for $4 was a great bargain.  And, as usual, there were good players available for $1 at the end.  I was especially happy getting Julio Lugo for just $1. 

 

On the pitching side, in 2005 + 2006 many starting pitchers went for discounts in the $12-15 range, but in 2007 it was only around $8-9.  I always want to get a top pitcher, and would have liked to get Johan Santana or Jake Peavy.  I decided that if either of them were available at the larger discount, I’d take it.  And, if not, I’d adjust my thinking to the 2007 level, and try to get a pitcher from the next tier (Bedard, Webb, Beckett, Sabathia, etc.) for an $8-9 discount.

 

First, Johan went for $40 and then Peavy for $32.  Sticking to my plan, I passed.  The next nominated starter was Beckett, and I got him for $22 (an $11 discount in my opinion).  I had spent less money than expected on a top relief pitcher (Joe Nathan for $18) so when Brandon Webb was sitting there at $23, I bid $24 and got him (another $11 discount).   

 

I completed my starters with $1-3 buys of Garland, Blanton, Meche, and Marcum.  I also got Zito and Buehrle on reserve.

 

I bought Saito as my other closer, also for $18.  A little while later, I wasn’t happy when Bobby Jenks, whom I rated almost as good as Saito, went for just $13.  But that’s what always happens in auctions.  When you buy someone, you never know what will happen later.

 

I’m a little concerned about Saito’s health.  He’s 38, and has been getting some minor injuries lately, so I wanted to get Broxton as insurance.  I was hoping to get him for $1 near the end, but somebody else nominated him, so I had to bid $2 to get him.  It’s a waste of $1, but I’ll sleep better at night having Broxton on my team. 

 

And getting Zito and Buehrle in the reserve rounds—$10 value pitchers for free—makes up for it.  They also give me flexibility where I have the option of going with a 7th starting pitcher and benching Broxton whenever I want, depending on my needs (i.e., do I want to use Broxton to keep my ERA and WHIP low, or use another starter to make up ground in Wins and K’s?)

 

When the auction was over, Todd Zola didn’t mention if my team was still projected for first place.  I guess I’ll have to send him an e-mail and find out.

 

If you want to see the full auction results, as well as the results of the AL-only and NL-only Tout Wars, you can find them at www.toutwars.com.  You can also follow the standings and FAAB moves throughout the year on that web site. 

 

 

C

Jorge Posada

$18

 

 

 

 

C

Bengie Molina

$  8

 

 

 

 

1B

Adrian Gonzalez

$16

 

 

 

 

2B

Tadahito Iguchi 

$  1

 

 

 

 

SS

Julio Lugo

$  1

 

 

 

 

3B

Chone Figgins

$22

 

 

 

 

OF

Magglio Ordonez

$22

 

 

 

 

OF

Bobby Abreu

$22

 

 

 

 

OF

Torii Hunter

$19

 

 

 

 

OF

Raul Ibanez

$  4

 

 

 

 

OF

Mike Cameron

$  1

 

 

 

 

2B-SS

Jason Bartlett

$  1

 

 

 

 

1B-3B

Hank Blalock

$  2

 

 

 

 

UT

David Ortiz

$29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P

Brandon Webb

$24

 

 

 

 

P

Josh Beckett

$22

 

 

 

 

P

Gil Meche

$  3

 

 

 

 

P

Jon Garland

$  2

 

 

 

 

P

Joe Blanton

$  2

 

 

 

 

P

Shawn Marcum

$  1

 

 

 

 

P

Jonathan Broxton

$  2

 

 

 

 

P

Takashi Saito

$18

 

 

 

 

P

Joe Nathan

$18

 

 

 

 

 

Reserves:

Jayson Nix

Randy Winn

Corey Patterson

Barry Zito

Mark Buehrle

Bob Howry

 

 

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