Fantasy Baseball Insider – 2018 book sample
(random players)
Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox, Bats Right, Bats Right, Age 26 – Betts has a quick bat, good speed and is a top defensive outfielder. He has three straight seasons of 40+ doubles while maintaining an excellent k/bb ratio. The 54-point drop in batting average looks like a fluke at the moment as he saw more breaking stuff last year than ever before. He should be able to make the proper adjustments and maybe even get back into the 30-homer range.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Red Sox |
189 |
34 |
5 |
18 |
7 |
.291 |
.368 |
|
2015 |
Red Sox |
597 |
92 |
18 |
77 |
21 |
.291 |
.341 |
|
2016 |
Red Sox |
672 |
122 |
31 |
113 |
26 |
.318 |
.363 |
|
2017 |
Red Sox |
628 |
101 |
24 |
102 |
26 |
.264 |
.344 |
|
|
Projected |
625 |
100 |
28 |
100 |
25 |
.279 |
|
Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians, Bats Left, Age 31 – Brantley has a sweet swing with some power potential but can’t stay healthy. He missed most of 2016 following shoulder surgery the previous November but came back strong last year before breaking an ankle in July. His rehab has reportedly gone well but he will be behind in spring training and could be questionable for Opening Day. Bid with caution but he could be a steal if you get him for under $10.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Indians |
611 |
94 |
20 |
97 |
23 |
.327 |
.385 |
|
2015 |
Indians |
529 |
68 |
15 |
84 |
15 |
.310 |
.379 |
|
2016 |
Indians |
39 |
5 |
0 |
7 |
1 |
.231 |
.279 |
|
2017 |
Indians |
338 |
47 |
9 |
52 |
11 |
.299 |
.357 |
|
|
Projected |
400 |
53 |
14 |
59 |
15 |
.290 |
|
Randal Grichuk. Toronto Blue Jays, Bats Right, Age 26 – Grichuk has power to all fields and can play all three outfield positions but is expected to start in right field this season. Don’t expect a high batting average unless he reduces his strikeouts (141/28) but is still valuable for the homers. He was sent down for a month in the first half to work on his swing and mental approach last year. He also was rehabbing a strained lower back in the middle of July. " (Pronounced GRICH-ick)
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Cardinals |
110 |
11 |
3 |
8 |
0 |
.245 |
.278 |
|
2015 |
Cardinals |
323 |
49 |
17 |
47 |
4 |
.276 |
.329 |
|
2016 |
Cardinals |
446 |
66 |
24 |
68 |
5 |
.240 |
.289 |
|
2017 |
Cardinals |
412 |
53 |
22 |
59 |
6 |
.238 |
.285 |
|
|
Projected
|
500 |
75 |
30 |
84 |
6 |
.242 |
|
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles, Bats Right, Age 26 – Mancini has good power but strikes out a lot as some scouts describe his swing as a bit long. But he surprised everybody with a solid season last year. He had a 139/33 k/bb ratio that worries us but he hit right-handers well and made the transition from first base to left field. He also improved his strikeout rate in the second half a bit and proved to be an all-field hitter. Temper expectation a bit.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2016 |
Orioles |
14 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
0 |
.357 |
.400 |
|
2017 |
Orioles |
543 |
65 |
24 |
78 |
1 |
.293 |
.338 |
|
|
Projected |
525 |
61 |
24 |
72 |
0 |
.269 |
|
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox, Bats Both, Age 23 – Moncada, a top prospect, will open the season at second base and could be a sleeper. He hit well last year but a 74/29 k/bb ratio will keep his average down for now. Most scouts think the k-rate will drop as he matures. He should be a 20/20 player or higher when that happens. On the plus side he draws walks. On the minus side he struggles vs. lefties. He's only 22 so maybe he'll improve his pitch recognition down the road. Prospect hype will likely raise his value in most drafts.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2017 |
AAA |
309 |
57 |
12 |
36 |
17 |
.282 |
.377 |
|
2017 |
White Sox |
199 |
31 |
8 |
22 |
3 |
.231 |
.338 |
|
|
Projected |
550 |
81 |
19 |
62 |
15 |
.248 |
|
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers, Bats Left, Age 24 – Odor has good power but he still needs to improve his plate selectivity (162/32 k/bb ratio). He is a solid defender at second base and plays with passion but he got into the bad habit of swinging at everything last year, becoming too pull-conscience, and the average tanked. Until he breaks out of this stubborn habit, his average will stay down. He also struggled terribly against lefties last year. (Pronounced ROOG-ned oh-DORE)
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Rangers |
386 |
39 |
9 |
48 |
4 |
.259 |
.297 |
|
2015 |
Rangers |
426 |
54 |
16 |
61 |
6 |
.261 |
.316 |
|
2016 |
Rangers |
605 |
89 |
33 |
88 |
14 |
.271 |
.296 |
|
2017 |
Rangers |
607 |
79 |
30 |
75 |
15 |
.204 |
.252 |
|
|
Projected |
575 |
71 |
26 |
62 |
12 |
.236 |
|
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics, Bats Left, Age 24 – Olson has big power but strikes out too much to hit for a decent average. AL hurlers pitch him low and away. He draws walks though and fared better than expected in limited duty last year after simplifying his swing. He displayed pretty good control of the strike zone in the minors, so maybe he can eventually lay off the tough pitches and/or go the other way with authority. He batted .272-23-60 at AAA Nashville last year and will open this season as the starting first baseman.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2016 |
Athletics |
21 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
.095 |
.321 |
|
2017 |
Athletics |
189 |
33 |
24 |
45 |
0 |
.259 |
.352 |
|
|
Projected |
525 |
71 |
33 |
72 |
0 |
.232 |
|
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins, Bats Right, Age 25 – Sano, a poor defensive player, moved to right field and then to third base. He gained back his batting average last year despite an almost identical 173/54 k/bb ratio. He missed 40 games with a stress reaction in his shin last year and had surgery after the season. He will divide his time between 3B-DH this year. He is currently under investigation into sexual assault claims against him and showed up to camp overweight. Looks like a risky pick this year.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2015 |
Twins |
279 |
46 |
18 |
52 |
1 |
.269 |
.385 |
|
2016 |
Twins |
437 |
57 |
25 |
66 |
1 |
.236 |
.319 |
|
2017 |
Twins |
424 |
75 |
28 |
77 |
0 |
.264 |
.352 |
|
|
Projected |
475 |
79 |
23 |
72 |
0 |
.243 |
|
(from last year’s book)
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants, Bats Left, Age 30 – Belt shortened his swing, grip and stance and reduced the strikeouts the last three years and its shown in his production. But more concussion problems hindered him last year. He suffered a broken hand and then a concussion in 2014. He suffered a concussion and also played through a meniscus tear in 2015. "There are always going to be some questions about whether this has some long term effects," he said. "But right now it’s not going to keep me from playing baseball. In the long run, I want to make sure I’m one-hundred-thousand percent ready to go when the season starts."
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Giants |
214 |
30 |
12 |
27 |
3 |
.243 |
.306 |
|
2015 |
Giants |
492 |
73 |
18 |
68 |
9 |
.280 |
.356 |
|
2016 |
Giants |
542 |
77 |
17 |
82 |
0 |
.275 |
.394 |
|
2017 |
Giants |
382 |
63 |
18 |
51 |
3 |
.241 |
.355 |
|
|
Projected |
400 |
61 |
16 |
56 |
0 |
.259 |
|
Justin Bour, Miami Marlins, Bats Left, Age 30 – Bour has good power but strikes out a lot so his average fluctuates. He did improve his k/bb ratio the last two years and worked on going to all fields. He is a poor defensive first baseman and struggles against lefties at times. He also needs to improve his conditioning habits. He missed two months with an ankle sprain in 2016. He missed six weeks with a strained oblique last year. He also missed 10 days with a sprained ankle.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Marlins |
74 |
10 |
1 |
11 |
0 |
.284 |
.361 |
|
2015 |
Marlins |
409 |
42 |
23 |
73 |
0 |
.262 |
.321 |
|
2016 |
Marlins |
280 |
35 |
15 |
51 |
0 |
.264 |
.349 |
|
2017 |
Marlins |
377 |
52 |
25 |
83 |
1 |
.289 |
.366 |
|
|
Projected |
400 |
60 |
22 |
77 |
0 |
.262 |
|
David Dahl, Colorado Rockies, Bats Left, Age 24 – Dahl’s top prospect status has been derailed several times with injuries. He played in just 19 rehab games due to a stress reaction in his rib cage last year. "I feel great," he said. "I'm completely healed." Dahl has good power but strikes out a lot so there might be some correction in his batting average. If healthy, he could win a platoon job in left field and have some sleeper status. Grab him late or on reserve.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2016 |
Minors |
350 |
70 |
18 |
61 |
17 |
.314 |
.425 |
|
2016 |
Rockies |
222 |
42 |
7 |
24 |
5 |
.315 |
.359 |
Scooter Gennett, Cincinnati Reds, Bats Left, Age 28 – Gennett, who became one of only two players to have four grand slams in a season as well as a four-home run game (Lou Gehrig was the other), was a huge unlikely breakout last year. He was claimed off of waivers at the end of spring training and began the season in a utility role. He took over the second base job two months later and never looked back. He altered his approach at the plate and became a bit more pull conscience after making his living as a spray hitter in the pros. NL hurlers will be pitching him differently this year so he will have to adjust. If he can, he could very well approach last year’s power numbers. Unfortunately he will likely be too expensive in most drafts.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2014 |
Brewers |
440 |
55 |
9 |
54 |
6 |
.289 |
.320 |
|
2015 |
Brewers |
375 |
42 |
6 |
29 |
1 |
.264 |
.294 |
|
2016 |
Brewers |
498 |
58 |
14 |
56 |
8 |
.263 |
.317 |
|
2017 |
Reds |
461 |
80 |
27 |
97 |
3 |
.295 |
.342 |
|
|
Projected |
500 |
83 |
22 |
88 |
4 |
.278 |
|
Jose Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals, Bats Right, Age 29 – Martinez surprised everybody with a breakout season in a part time role last year. He showed excellent plate awareness as well as anybody according to an analysis by the Statcast™ lab. They took into account exit velocity, launch angle and k/bb ratio and well as strikeout rate. He missed three weeks with a groin injury last year. He had three knee surgeries in the minors that kept his power in check until 2015. He slumped a bit in 2016 but added more loft to his swing and voila – more power. So now he looks for real but is caught up in a numbers crunch at 1B-OF where he has eligibly from last year. So we’re not sure how much playing time he’ll get at either position. If he slips to the late rounds, grab him fast.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2016 |
Cardinals |
16 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
.438 |
.500 |
|
2017 |
Cardinals |
272 |
47 |
14 |
46 |
4 |
.309 |
.379 |
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves, Bats Right, Age 24 – Scouts are mixed on Swanson’s upside but most prospect geeks love him. He’s a gamer, always hustling, but doesn’t have one outstanding skill. He struggled with his selectivity and confidence last year and was sent down for a time but finished with the big club. He should also steal more bases as he matures but most do not think he will be a big time power hitter. Some think he might have to move off shortstop, but not this year. He was the #1 overall pick in 2016.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2016 |
Braves |
129 |
20 |
3 |
17 |
3 |
.302 |
.361 |
|
2017 |
Braves |
488 |
59 |
6 |
51 |
3 |
.232 |
.312 |
|
|
Projected |
525 |
60 |
10 |
57 |
5 |
.248 |
|
Jesse Winker. Cincinnati Reds, Bats Left, Age 24 – Winker, a good prospect, is a solid contact hitter with a great eye at the plate and hits lefties as well as right-handers. He plays solid defense in left field and some think he could make the transition to right field as well. He hit 29 doubles and showed some HR power last year so maybe that part of his game is going to come around. He is certainly big and strong enough to hit homers but his swing has been geared to line drives in the minors. He missed a month with a wrist injury that affected the power in 2016 but he has never hit more than 16 homers in any full minor-league season. Grab him on reserve as a sleeper unless a trade is made to free up a starting job. They say they will rotate their outfielders this year to get him some extra playing time.
|
|
|
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
|
2017 |
AAA |
299 |
33 |
2 |
41 |
2 |
.314 |
.395 |
|
2017 |
Reds |
121 |
21 |
7 |
15 |
1 |
.298 |
.375 |
…