Fantasy Baseball Insider - book sample (random players) - 2008

Rich Aurilia, San Francisco Giants, Bats Right, Age 36 – Aurilia dropped off at the plate last year and missed time with a strained neck suffered in a car accident in spring training. "I had headaches for five weeks," he said. "I couldn't turn my head to face the pitcher." He hit .339 over his first 16 games before his neck stiffened up and remained that way for the rest of the season. "It didn't bother me for two months, but I talked to several people who say necks can be funny like that." Two cortisone injections brought temporary relief but the pain didn't go away until this winter. Expect a rebound at the plate somewhat. He will open the season at third base but there have been rumors about a Joe Crede acquisition in which case Aurilia would back up all four infield positions. Grab him late or on reserve for his INF-OF versatility.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Mariners-Padres	399	49	6	44	1	.246	.310
2005	Reds	426	61	14	68	2	.282	.338
2006	Reds	440	61	23	70	3	.300	.349
2007	Giants	329	40	5	33	0	.252	.304
	Projected	375	45	12	44	0	.282

Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds, Bats Right, Age 25 – Encarnacion is a very streaky hitter and defender and was optioned to Louisville last May after batting just .218 with six errors in 31 games. He then hit .413 in 11 games and was quickly recalled batting .300 the rest of the way. "I feel very comfortable at the plate. My defense is working hard; everything is working. If you are working hard every day, good things will come," he said. Some think he'll benefit a lot from Dusty Baker's influence. Should be a more reliable pickup this year.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2005	Reds	211	25	9	31	3	.232	.308
2006	Reds	406	60	15	72	6	.276	.359
2007	Reds	502	66	16	76	8	.289	.356
	Projected	500	76	22	86	8	.277

Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves, Bats Right, Age 25 – Escobar filled in admirably for the injured Renteria last year (.294 with a dinger and four doubles in 18 games) and now takes over for good. He has some pop (25 doubles) and also draws a few walks while making good contact at the plate. "I think he can be a .300 hitter in this league, no doubt in my mind," hitting coach Terry Pendleton said. "He has a good idea of the strike zone, and he's aggressive in it." But it’s not going to be easy. "He might have to make adjustments this year as [pitchers] make adjustments to him, but he can hit. It showed last year, when he went against some teams a second and third time last year." He is a solid defensive player and could be a sleeper this year. He has eligibility at 2B-SS-3B.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2006	AA	428	55	2	45	7	.263	.361
2007	AAA	180	20	2	29	7	.333	.379
2007	Braves	319	54	5	28	5	.326	.385
	Projected	500	72	8	48	9	.281

Ben Francisco, Cleveland Indians, Bats Right, Age 26 – Francisco has good bat and foot speed and can hit the breaking ball. His only flaws are a tendency to chase high fastballs once in a while and he also needs to be more aggressive defensively. He got lost among other outfield prospects in the system but will try to win a reserve job again this spring. He makes for a nice sleeper reserve pick if he does because he can hit. He was selected the International League's "most exciting player."

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2006	AAA	515	80	17	59	25	.278	.345
2007	AAA	377	60	12	51	22	.318	.382
2007	Indians	62	10	3	12	0	.274	.303

Carlos Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics, Bats Left, Age 22 – Gonzalez, acquired in the Dan Haren deal, was generally regarded as the top prospect in the Diamondbacks system, but was blocked by talent already in the majors. He hit .286-16-75 in 120 games at AA Mobile and .310 with one home run in 10 games after a promotion to Tucson. He will move quickly if he improves plate discipline and pitch recognition but probably needs more time at AAA. He has power and batting average potential and plays an excellent right field. Bob Geren said the A's would take a long look at him in center this spring. Has star potential if he can put it all together. Great future pick.

Brendan Harris, Minnesota Twins, Bats Right, Age 27 – Harris has developing power and plays solid defense but still needs to reduce his strikeouts and draw more walks. He has played mostly at second base, but can also play shortstop and third base. He opened last season as the Rays starting shortstop, but was moved to second because of questions about his range and durability. He will battle Casilla and Punto at second this spring. Grab him on reserve for his 2B-SS eligibility but keep a close eye on his in camp. If he wins the starting job, he has some value.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Cubs-Expos	59	4	1	3	0	.169	.225
2006	Nationals-Reds	42	5	1	3	0	.238	.319
2007	Rays	521	72	12	59	4	.286	.343

Raul Ibañez, Seattle Mariners, Bats Left, Age 36 – Ibañez struggled with mechanics last year until hitting coach Jeff Pentland got him back on track in August. "It makes him get the feel of the back side releasing," Pentland said about shortening his stride. "It allows him to drive through the ball with his back side, almost like a golfer." He won’t duplicate 2006 again, but he’s been undervalued in early projections. He’s still worth $20 and you can probably get him for less.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Mariners	481	67	16	62	1	.304	.353
2005	Mariners	614	92	20	89	9	.280	.355
2006	Mariners	626	103	33	123	2	.289	.353
2007	Mariners	573	80	21	105	0	.291	.351
	Projected	600	83	23	100	2	.283

Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves, Bats Left, Age 26 – Johnson swings a decent line drive bat with patience at the plate. He developed a power stroke last year while making the successful transition to second base from the outfield. Coming off Tommy John surgery and playing a new position, he made 14 errors though. He also got caught taking too many pitches inside for strike three. "I knew that they were coming in and I wasn't making the adjustment," he said. "That's one thing I want to be ready for." He platooned last year but is set for full time duty this season. Looks good.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2005	Braves	290	46	9	40	2	.241	.334
2007	Braves	521	91	16	68	9	.276	.375
	Projected	525	84	17	71	7	.261

Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, Bats Right, Age 22 – Hopefully Jones is ready for the center field job this year as he was obviously rushed to the majors too soon in 2006. He’ll probably strike out a lot but will be an upgrade for the defense. He has speed and power potential but has trouble with off-speed stuff and plate patience so beware low batting average. He had a breakout year for Tacoma last year and should eventually settle in as a .280 hitter with 20-25 home run power. "He's a tremendously gifted athlete," one executive said. "He's a good kid with good instincts." Excellent future pick.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2006	AAA	380	69	16	62	13	.287	.345
2006	Mariners	74	6	1	8	3	.216	.237
2007	AAA	420	75	25	84	8	.314
2007	Mariners	65	16	2	4	2	.246	.300
	Projected	500	78	15	66	10	.258

Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox, Bats Right, Age 32 – Lugo reverted back to his free-swinging ways last year and saw his average drop like a rock. That poor OBP was the worst of his career. He got off to a slow start and said it was due to a stomach parasite that he picked up in Europe. "I never got my strength back," he said. "I was sick before I came in. This year I feel better. I'm in better condition." He hit .284 in the second half, which might be closer to the norm. He still managed to set a personal high in RBI while clubbing 36 doubles. He could be undervalued in this year’s drafts.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Rays	581	83	7	75	21	.275	.338
2005	Rays	616	89	6	57	39	.295	.362
2006	Rays-Dodgers	435	69	12	37	24	.278	.341
2007	Red Sox	570	71	8	73	33	.237	.294
	Projected	575	73	9	66	30	.278

Steve Pearce, Pittsburgh Pirates, Bats Right, Age 25 – Pearce, a power hitting first baseman who is learning to play the outfield, batted a combined .333-31-113 with 40 doubles for Class-A Lynchburg, AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis last year. He is a decent, not great prospect but will likely begin the season playing everyday at Indy. "In a perfect world, Steve deserves a chance to win an everyday job at the major league level, but with Xavier, with Jason, with Adam, we're not in a position to give that to him," GM Neal Huntington said. Keep an eye on him anyway. A Nady trade could open things up for him. A nice reserve pick.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2007	AA	290	57	14	72	7	.334	.400
2007	AAA	122	18	6	17	5	.320	.366
2007	Pirates	68	13	0	6	2	.294	.342

Carlos Peña, Tampa Bay Rays, Bats Left, Age 30 – Peña was released twice in 2006 (by the Red Sox and Yankees) and became the first player in history to hit 40 homers the year after being released. "It's about pitch selection," Joe Maddon said. "He used to hit too many ground balls to second and to first, and then (pitchers) could expand the strike zone. What he's doing now is being more selective." As a result, he will likely be overpriced in most drafts this year.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Tigers	481	89	27	82	7	.241	.338
2005	Tigers	260	37	18	44	0	.235	.325
2006	Red Sox	33	3	1	3	0	.273	.351
2007	Rays	490	99	46	121	1	.282	.411
	Projected	525	90	37	96	0	.267

Wily Mo Peña, Washington Nationals, Bats Right, Age 26 – Peña will likely open the season in left field even though he is below average defensively. He also needs to improve his patience at the plate. He was hitting .218-5-17 in 156 at bats with Boston prior to the trade last year so he finished strong, but he could easily start to lose at bats against right-handers this season. Don’t expect him to be a full-time player all year.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Reds	336	45	26	66	5	.259	.316
2005	Reds	311	42	19	51	2	.254	.304
2006	Red Sox	276	36	11	42	0	.301	.349
2007	Red Sox-Nationals	289	42	13	39	2	.253	.319
	Projected	425	68	23	57	3	.256

Alex Rios, Toronto Blue Jays, Bats Right, Age 27 – Rios’ power has developed nicely the last two years. But his walk rate is low and he is still streaky at the plate so there could be a fallback in certain categories this year. After pitchers started working the outside part of the plate last year, he hit only seven home runs after slugging 17 before the all-star break. He’ll need to adjust this spring or the numbers below could drop significantly.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Blue Jays	426	55	1	28	15	.286	.338
2005	Blue Jays	481	71	10	59	14	.262	.306
2006	Blue Jays	450	68	17	82	15	.302	.349
2007	Blue Jays	643	114	24	85	17	.297	.354
	Projected	625	105	23	88	16	.296

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Bats Right, Age 24 – Reynolds wasn't even on the 40-man roster last spring but hit well after a quick recall but then tailed off at the end. He has good power but strikes out a lot a will probably not hit for a high average in the majors. "Scouting up here is unbelievable," he said. "Every series it might be different pitching. In the minor leagues, it was always soft, soft, soft, away, away, away. And up here, I'm seeing a lot more fastballs in, and they're trying to get me out that way." Lots of sliders too. He plays third base and a little outfield but sometimes struggles defensively. Don’t overbid.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2006	AA	114	23	8	21	0	.272	.346
2007	AA	134	28	6	22	2	.306	.394
2007	Diamondbacks	366	62	17	62	0	.279	.349
	Projected	425	75	19	69	0	.262

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks, Bats Right, Age 27 – Snyder is a good defensive catcher with some power and improved at the plate last year by going with the pitch more often. A terrible start dragged his average down but he heated up after the break. Bob Melvin noticed: "He's really come of age. Understanding the opponent. The pitchers know he's prepared. And (he's) becoming a bit of a leader as well." Snyder will begin the season as the starter and makes for a nice $5 pickup.

		AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP
2004	Diamondbacks	96	10	5	15	0	.240	.327
2005	Diamondbacks	326	24	6	28	0	.202	.297
2006	Diamondbacks	184	19	6	32	0	.277	.349
2007	Diamondbacks	326	37	13	47	0	.252	.342
	Projected	400	40	14	44	0	.256

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