John Coleman interview
John Coleman is the statistical
expert at the Sandlot Shrink.
The following is an expert’s interview with the Sandlot Shrink's John Coleman. John won the championship in the NL Tout War's expert's league two years in a row.
1.
What was the most important factor(s) that led you to win your league?
Really great FAAB pickups, especially pitching. The Stars & Scrubs budget strategy lends itself to active FAABing. Also, Chipper Jones and Randy Johnson were great bargains.
2.
What is different about the expert leagues that the average player should keep
in mind when following them?
The most significant difference is this: TRADING. Experts just don't want to wheel and deal, and the best traders often win private leagues. For this reason, ROSTER BALANCE is of the utmost importance in expert leagues, while SHEER TALENT is more important in private leagues.
3.
In your opinion, what is the biggest mistake fantasy players make that keep
them from being successful?
Making a trade without offering your players to several other owners first! It's just lazy, and it costs you big time.
4.
Do you believe in "punting" a category?
Mid-season - yes. I would never want to be shut out of a category right out
of the chute, though. Too many things can change during the season. Except
maybe in a 5x5 league. That is a possibility to punt either the steals or saves
categories (not both) and still win. But don’t make that a cut and dried
strategy. You have to respond to the market. If on draft day you notice that
the rest of the owners are overvaluing the steals and/or saves, then back off
and buy the stud power and starting pitcher guys. Stud starters are like gold
in 5x5. You can also address your weaknesses in free agency throughout the
year…
This theory does not work in 4x4 though. If you scrap saves all together, you will get one point. It is best to try and not to overpay for saves. I would suggest that balance is they key. You can do reasonably well in your league if you can get a decent closer along with a few guys that normally get some saves or try to grab a potential closer in waiting. Do not blow your budget on saves, i.e. one big money closer.
5.
How much do you normally budget for pitching?
30% in 4x4, 40% in 5x5
6.
During the draft things never go as planned, what piece of advice can you give
to deal with this?
I draw up several budgets based on the acquisition of unique talents (i.e. The Pedro Strategy, the Pudge Strategy). Most players are not unique - you always have lots of $19 outfielders from which to choose (for instance, there are three $35+ shortstops.) Once the unique talents are dispersed, I write down a budgeted dollar amount at each slot on my roster sheet, so I know my choices available to fill each slot. Then I can easily choose which players are not useful to me, so that I can bring them up for bidding. With minor adjustments, this plan will keep you in control for the entire draft.
7.
Do you believe in position scarcity?
I do not overpay for skill positions, though I encourage other owners to do so.
8.
How much does luck come into play?
An awful lot, but remember: Chance favors the prepared.
9.
In keeper leagues, what type of players do you keep?
I NEVER keep a "DH ONLY". I hate to keep non-closing relievers. I rarely keep starting pitching, unless it's very cheap or Pedro. I LOVE keeping speed. I like keeping cheap catchers, shortstops and third basemen. I like pricey stars when they are priced below their draft-inflated market value. I won't fill a position, i.e. 2 SS, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 1B or 5 OF. I want to keep my roster flexible until the very end.
10.
In a straight draft, one piece of advice players should know.
Positional
Scarcity must not be ignored.
11.
In an auction draft, one piece of advice players should know.
Always
"bid up" players you can't use, but drop out well before market
price.
12.
Do you use the same draft strategy from year to year?
Yes, but I always target players using a "theme". The theme changes.
13.
Do you believe there is a trend towards spending less on pitching?
No. The Stars are more expensive than ever.
14.
What tools do you have with at the table you on draft day?
A blank league roster sheet with spaces for reserve picks. A budget worksheet. A cheat sheet with enough players listed to fill the entire league, ranking all players by market value, sorted by position group. Automatic pencil. Fine point Hi-Liter.
15.
How do you usually approach the draft "endgame" or "dollar
days?"
Have the DH slot open. Know who you want in it. Target the owners with money, and get them out of the way by bringing up the player You Know They Want. If possible, choose a player that two of them will fight over. This is fun. Know your opponent's max bid, if you can keep up with it. Spot the player that you need, but no one else does (he's your last $1 bid).
16.
For players that have not been successful, what are your "key"
components to winning?
Not having a complete player listing ranked by value is a great handicap. You should not need any periodicals at the draft table. Understand draft-day inflation for keeper leagues. Budget your roster. All you need to do is mix 2-3 stars into a solid roster and you're a contender. Steals and Saves are always overpriced. Live with it. Don't EVER use up your pitching budget on mid-priced relievers and setup men. Use your pitching dollars for a stud starter, a solid closer, decent starters and finally whatever $1 pitchers are best. Setup men and middle relievers are a waste at anything over $1 because they are entirely unpredictable and have no residual value when they bomb.
17.
Any comments you like to share I didn't cover.
Don't
Drink and Draft.
