Basic pitching theory
By John Coleman, statistical expert
March 13, 2000
Primary skills
A pitcher spends his whole career losing his fastball. The fastball is our
primary physical gauge of pitching talent. That's why "fuel"
analogies are so common. If a pitcher demonstrates a rare level of this single
attribute, he needs do nothing more to draw a check. Throw hard and you get
paid. You're money in the bank.
The "science" of pitching is something I know very little about.
Pitching in patterns. Changing speeds. Knowing when to pitch inside. It's
described in mysterious phrases when it is described at all. It's psychology,
philosophy, logic, math and E.S.P. It's the stuff of genius.
I believe that a pitcher (with a few exceptions) spends his whole career
getting smarter. The trick is getting smart enough before your velocity
declines too much. It's a simple graph. You want the smart line to intersect
the speed line in the positive domain. Each line is headed in an opposite
direction, though.
"Control" is the name for the intensely fine coordination, which
allows the pitcher to precisely repeat each act of propulsion. You either have
it or you try to work around it. It is rarely acquired in mid career, but
shortcomings can briefly be masked.
Secondary skills
Breaking pitches measure dexterity. I don't mean to diminish their
importance, because it's the area where the most amount of coaching effort is
placed. That's because it's changeable. You can learn these new tricks and
discover hidden skills. It can often alter a career by several degrees. Some
pitchers excel using only the fastball. Rare pitchers can compete only with
their dexterity and control.
Nobody succeeds without knowing the science. That's why I mistrust young
pitchers. Young guys are dumb. Their talent is measured by a single standard,
which is constantly declining. Picking the smart and coachable ones... That's
the trick.
Measures of success
Unfortunately, any significant statistical measure of pitching skill is
polluted heavily by context and sheer luck - saves, wins, Losses, earned runs,
hits allowed, homeruns, strikeouts and walks. All of these results are the
product of the pitcher's skill, managerial tendencies, team offense, team
defense, skill of the opposing pitchers, skill of the opposing defense and
offense, visibility, park effects, weather effects and umpiring. It's just too
many variables. Chaos theory sets in. And I didn't mention health.
The randomizing effect of chance can take a very long time to average out. So
long, in fact, those basic skills can significantly change before they are
recognized at all. I guess that leaves voodoo and tea leaves as our main
analysis tools.
Conclusion
Well, you might wonder what my point is. Pitcher predictability is the
single greatest challenge facing stat guys like myself. That's why I get so
excited with guys that not only throw hard with control, but also are
constantly characterized as a brilliant individual.
I am pleased to read any new information or viewpoint on this issue. Your input
is most welcome.
