Draft Day Inflation / Deflation

One of the problems facing keeper leagues is how to figure a player's worth by taking into account draft day inflation. How much inflation is there, and what would his contract be if it were adjusted to reflect it?

Here's how to figure inflation:

1. Set a bid value on every player that will go in your draft, usually the top 276 players (12 teams x 23 players). The bottom guys have to go for $1, of course.

2. The total of all contracts must equal your total number of dollars - usually $3120 dollars (12 teams x $260).

3. Select the keepers in your league. You can usually estimate who they are accurately enough to determine inflation.

4. We need two numbers here: the sum total of their bid values and the sum total of their keeper contracts. Be sure to allow for long term extensions where appropriate.

Here's the math:

(total draft dollars, i.e. 3120) - (total keeper bid values) = draftable talent value.

(total draft dollars, i.e. 3120) - (total of keeper contracts) = available funds.

(available funds) / (draftable talent value) = inflation factor

This factor is commonly 1.2 or higher. (20% inflation)

Now, multiply every available player's bid value by the inflation factor. The resulting total bid values should now equal exactly the amount of money to spend. You must do these calculations to stay competitive in a keeper league.

Now you can analyze your own bubble players. Let's say player "A" should earn no more than $32 in a standard draft. For that player to earn $43, your inflation figure should be around 35%, which is not uncommon. At this level of inflation you would throw him back. It's not terribly likely, that he might be worth keeping. But you need to know for sure, so run the numbers.

Here's how to figure deflation:

Set a bid value on every player that will go in your draft, usually the top 276 players (12 teams x 23 players). The bottom guys have to go for $1, of course. Sandlot Shrink supplies cheat sheets with these values. The total of all contracts must equal your total number of dollars - usually $3120 dollars (12 teams x $260).

List all of the keepers in your league. We need two numbers here: the sum total of their bid values and the sum total of their keeper contracts.

Here's the math:

(total draft dollars, i.e. 3120) - (total keeper bid values) = draftable talent value.

(total draft dollars, i.e. 3120) - (total of keeper contracts) = available funds.

(available funds) / (draftable talent value) = inflation factor

This factor is commonly 1.2 or higher. (20% inflation)

Now, multiply every available player's bid value by the inflation factor. The resulting total bid values should now equal exactly the amount of money available. You must do these calculations to stay competitive in a keeper league.

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