Pre-break strategies
By R. Gregory Scalf
The season is about fifty-five percent gone at all-star time. So how is your team doing? For most leagues the break is close to trading deadline and represents the last chance to make major changes to your roster. Here are some things to consider at this time.
The superstar pitcher
In fantasy/rotisserie baseball, try to stay away from rookie pitchers. Predicting the next superstar pitcher is tough. First off, some hurlers put up mediocre minor league numbers but prosper when called up to the bigs. Their mental approach to the game may not be as strong as it should be in the minors. Consequently, they don't give their best effort until called up. Also, how a player reacts to pressure can't be measured either. There have been numerous "can't miss" prospects that have missed because of this. So there are factors that we can't measure. But even though they can be misleading, statistics are our best measuring tool.
The best tool to use is strikeouts per innings pitched in rating the prospects. Each level a player moves up, the competition gets tougher. Therefore, look for pitchers with over a strikeout per inning. These are the type of pitchers that have a chance to be a power pitcher. When you look at minor league pitchers, you should look at this stat too.
Every year pitchers, and hitters, get hyped. This ratio will help you see through that hype. If you need to pick a pitcher and you are evaluating the call-ups from the minors, look into this ratio as a telltale sign of their ability. Avoid those pitchers that do not strikeout a lot of guys and get billed as the next Greg Maddux. Sorry, but it takes years to become a "crafty" veteran. If a pitcher does not strikeout many in the minors, they will strikeout less in the majors and the ball will be put into play.
Pretenders or Contenders?
At the break, you should be able to tell if your team can compete or not. It is time to decide whether to make a run for it or play for next year. It is a tough decision as pride sometimes clouds the vision of a heartbroken fantasy player. If you are having trouble deciding, here are a few tips to help.
How many teams do I trail in the standings? This is probably the most important factor in making your decision. The more teams you need to pass, the less of a chance you have to make it into the top four positions. For example if you are in 10th place in a twelve-team league, you must pass six teams to make into fourth. It is difficult to pass that many teams, as your team must do better than all six you need to pass. The odds are not in your favor as all six teams are unlikely to become a failure. Some of the teams will probably falter, but a couple will improve as well. It is possible to make a big run and pass them all, but it is a rare occurrence at best.
How tight are the categories?
How many points can you gain in certain categories? If the categories are tight and ten or fifteen RBI's will gain you a few points, you are in business. However, if you are fifty RBI's behind the next team then you can't expect to gain many points. If it appears that the categories are tight enough to gain some points, perhaps playing for this year is in your interest.
Project your best-case scenario.
Add up the possible points you could gain in a best-case scenario. Then divide that number by half to get a realistic gain. Usually owners are too optimistic about their team and how much they can gain. If you, for example, have 40 points and project your best-case scenario as 60 points, take the 20-point gain and divide by half for 10 points. Realistically you will have 50 points. Evaluate this number and see if it puts you where you want to be at season's end. If 50 points did not put you in the hypothetical money or near it, then play for next year.
Projected statistics.
This is time consuming, but can be done with the help of a web site or software. Project the stats for the rest of the season of your players and those of your opponents and see where you end up in a hypothetical season. Do you have key players on the DL that will impact categories? This will help you to see how much you can gain by their return. The same can be done to possible trades to see which would benefit you most. The projections should tell you if you would be in the hunt or not.
Unorthodox Trade Advice
There are so many factors involved in a trade that it is difficult to give good advice. Most fantasy players are worried that the trade is not even and are afraid of getting "ripped off." Well, in some cases it is okay because a trade can sometimes hurt your opponents more than yourself.
For example, lets say you are in first in HR's and RBI's and have a comfortable lead in those categories. You can trade one of your power hitters to a team low in the standings that could take points away from your opponent in the standings by passing them in the power categories. A move that I call addition by subtraction and a plus for your team even though you "lost" the trade.
Struggling Players
Finally, how long do you stick by a struggling player? Personally, I like to play the odds - the more established a player the longer I would stick with him hoping the numbers will stay consistent from year to year.
Those on the last leg of their career, or that has a hot prospect pushing them, would be candidates to move. But, if there is a regular that is playing poorly and his job appears safe, hang on to him as he should come around. Watch how many owners will be willing to trade for your "bad" players. There is a reason for this, they expect a good second half too.
R. Gregory Scalf is a former division I baseball player and associate scout for the Kansas City Royals. He currently is the webmaster at Fantasy Baseball Central and the assistant webmaster at John Mosey's Fantasy baseball Home Page.
